Sunday, November 13, 2005

The Great Equalizer -- The all-in bet

When it comes to neutralizing talent, most people think that luck is the “great equalizer” in poker. Well, when it comes World Poker Tour to no-limit hold’em, I wouldn’t agree with that. Luck is a factor, but the great equalizer is the all-in bet. Moving all in is a surefire way of negating a player who is more skillful than you.

Years ago, I was watching Stu Ungar dismantle a table while capturing his second Super Bowl of Poker title. Every hand seemed like a rerun of the previous hand. Stuey would make a raise before the flop (and win many hands right there), someone would call, and then they would fold when he continued to fire World Series of Poker at the pot. (For your info, in the 1980s, Amarillo Slim’s Super Bowl of Poker was the second-largest poker tournament in the world. The only player in history to win titles in the main event at both the Super Bowl of Poker and the World Series of Poker was Stu Ungar — and he won them three times each!)

On one of the breaks, I went up to Stuey and congratulated him on how well he was playing. I then said to him, “I can’t believe those guys allow you to pick up pot after pot. I’m surprised that they call your raises and try to play with you Texas Holdem. Why don’t they just come over the top and move all in on you?” He looked me right in the eye and said, “Sexton, if you ever tell anyone that, I’ll kill you.”

Ungar knew his talent would be negated if his opponents moved all in on him. He understood that there is no defense against the all-in bet. When an opponent moves all in on you (assuming he’s not short-stacked or you’re not getting proper pot odds to call), the only way you can play with him is to have a hand.

If you want to beat the great players, you have to recognize (and utilize) the power of the great equalizer, the all-in bet. This minimizes their talent, as it takes away their ability to outplay you later in the hand. The problem for most players is that they are too conservative to use the great equalizer. They simply can’t pull the trigger in battle. They are afraid to come over the top of an aggressive player or move all in without a big hand themselves. If you’re looking to get to the winner’s circle, this is what you have to do.

To illustrate the power of the great equalizer, I’ll ask you a question. What do you think the chances are of a total novice beating the greatest no-limit hold’em player in the world in a heads-up freezeout (in which both players start with $10,000 in chips and the blinds start at $100-$200)? I’m talking about someone who doesn’t even know how to play poker versus anyone you choose (Doyle Brunson, Phil Hellmuth, Johnny Chan, Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ivey, or anyone else). Would you say the odds are 1,000-1, 300-1, 100-1, 20-1, 10-1, or less?

I believe it’s not only less than 10-1, but a lot less — something like 2-1. That’s right, the odds are as low as 2-1 that someone who has never played poker can beat the greatest player in the world. His instructions would simply be to move all in on every hand. (To further increase his chances of winning, you might have him move all in once every few hands in the first level, and then on every hand when the blinds go to $200-$400.)

The most likely scenario will be that the champion player will fold eight to 10 times in a row and then make a stand with something like A-10 or a pair of eights, hands that won’t be a big favorite over any other. If the novice wins the hand, it’s over. If not, he continues to move all in, building his stack back up, and perhaps winning the next time that situation comes up.

This illustration should also demonstrate why pot-limit hold’em requires more skill than no-limit hold’em. Once you eliminate the great equalizer Texas Holdem Poker from a player’s arsenal (as you do in pot-limit hold’em), the more skillful player will have a much better chance of winning.

The next time you play, try the great equalizer against the good, aggressive players. It will amaze you how well it works.

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